Uganda

Africa

BKT per capita
$1,103.0
Population (in 2021)
43.7 million

Arvio

Maariskit
C
Yritysilmasto
C
Aiemmin:
C
Aiemmin:
C

suggestions

Yhteenveto

Vahvuudet

  • Natural resources: fertile soils, oil deposits, hydroelectric potential
  • International support for infrastructure projects
  • Second-largest coffee exporter on the continent behind Ethiopia
  • Development of the oil sector

Heikkoudet

  • Lack of transparency in the gold industry
  • Insecurity in border areas, particularly with the Democratic Republic of Congo
  • Poor progress in governance (particularly in terms of anti-corruption measures)
  • Vulnerability of the agricultural sector to weather conditions and climate change
  • Inadequate infrastructure
  • Endemic poverty, persistent inequalities

Vaihtotase

Tavaravienninosuus %:na kokonaiskaupasta

Eurooppa
19%
South Sudan
17%
Kenia
17%
Kongon Demokraattinen tasavalta
12%
Tansania (liittotasavalta)
4%

Tuonninosuus %:na kokonaiskaupasta

Kiina 19 %
19%
Yhdistyneet Arabiemiirikunnat 14 %
14%
Intia 11 %
11%
Kenia 7 %
7%
Eurooppa 7 %
7%

Näkymä

Tämä osio on hyödyllinen väline yrityksen rahoitus- ja luottohenkilöstölle. Sen avulla saa tietoa maksu- ja perintäkäytännöistä eri maissa.

Fiscal consolidation continues

The budget deficit will continue to fall In 2023-2024, supported by governance and administrative reforms. The aim is to rebalance spending, reducing non-priority capital expenditure in favor of social spending, and optimise taxation by eliminating tax exemptions. Fiscal consolidation is guided by the three-year program, backed by a USD 1 billion Extended Credit Facility, agreed with the IMF in June 2021, of which USD 720 million has already been disbursed. Current expenditure (salaries, interest, security) and development expenditure (education, water, electricity, transport) are set to increase, but by less than revenue. The latter is essentially tax-based, but the country should continue to benefit from project aid (1.5% of GDP). Nevertheless, access to future aid and other external financing is threatened by the deterioration of ties with Western countries, following the passing of the anti-homosexuality law in May 2023. In August, the World Bank announced the suspension of new financing until the law is repealed or amended. However, the government will continue to rely on external borrowing, notably from China, to finance its deficit. Fiscal consolidation and growth will make it possible to slightly reduce the weight of public debt, which is essentially external (at 60%).

The current account deficit narrowed slightly in 2022-2023 thanks to lower oil prices and a recovery in gold exports, which had dried up from July 2021 to June 2022 following the introduction of an export tax of 10% on unrefined gold and 5% on refined gold. After negotiations with the industry, a 5% tax on raw gold exports and a levy of USD 200 per kilo of refined gold were introduced in early 2023, but collection of the tax has been suspended. Some 90% of exported gold comes illegally from the DRC, and is mostly smuggled via Entebbe airport to Dubai. In addition, 70% of exported gold is raw, despite the presence of five refineries. Uganda hopes to capitalise on its gold reserves by creating a state-owned mining company, as part of its new mining legislation adopted in 2022. The start-up of the Busia mine, operated by the Chinese company Wagagai, in spring 2024, will increase local extraction of gold, which will be refined before being exported legally. This will provide additional revenue for the State, especially over the 2024-2025 period. As the country's trade balance is structurally in deficit due to its dependence on oil, food, intermediate and capital goods imports, the government will continue its strategy of economic diversification in 2023/2024. Imports of technical services and capital goods required for petroleum development will increase, as will transport costs (compounded by the landlocked position), which will widen the trade and services deficits. The primary income deficit will be deepened by the repatriation of profits by non-residents, but largely offset by the secondary income surplus, which is supported by expatriate remittances and aid from charitable organisations. The current account deficit will be financed by foreign direct investment in the oil sector (the counterpart to a large proportion of imports) and concessional loans.

Security threats on the Congolese border

Re-elected in 2021, President Yoweri Museveni has been in power since 1986, and will be 82 at the next presidential election in 2026. His party, the National Resistance Movement (NMR), has a majority in the Assembly and exercises strong control over the country. However, protests are emerging from time to time over corruption, inequality, the cost of living and disputed oil projects, and the government will not hesitate to use force. Due to high demographic growth (3%) and a youthful population, hundreds of thousands of people enter the job market every year, accentuating youth unemployment and the high level of informality (87.2% of urban employment is informal).

Last updated: November 2023

Toinen maa, jossa on samanlainen maariski